U.S. producer prices dropped by the most in more than two years in December as the cost of energy products and trade services fell, adding to signs of tame inflation that may allow the Federal Reserve to be patient about raising interest rates this year.
Other data on Tuesday suggested manufacturing activity slowed further at the start of the year, with a measure of business confidence in New York State tumbling to more than a 1-1/2-year low in January.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that low inflation afforded policymakers “the ability to be patient and watch patiently and carefully” while they monitored economic data and financial markets for risks to growth. The U.S. central bank has forecast two rate increases for 2019.
“We expect the Fed to sit tight until June, and odds are rising that it could be an even longer pause given the absence of an acceleration in inflation, past tightening in financial market conditions, slowing in the global economy and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
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