European Open – Higher as EU27 Backs Brexit Deal

May gets backing from EU27 but does she have it at home?

European stock markets look set to get the week off to a more positive start on Monday, a day after leaders of the EU27 gave their backing for the UK Brexit deal.

Jean-Claude Juncker backed Theresa May claiming this is the best deal possible for the UK, who now has the much tougher task of convinced more than half of parliamentarians to vote for it in a couple of weeks. The deal has been heavily criticised at home, with a number of MPs from all parties be they remainers or leavers vowing to vote against it.

Whether they do so in parliament when faced with the alternative of a no deal Brexit is another matter but I think there is a long way to go until we get there and there’s likely to be considerable turbulence in the pound during that time. There are a wide number of scenarios for how this could play out in the coming weeks or months and it’s very difficult to say with any confidence which way it will go. The only thing I remain convinced won’t happen is a cliff-edge no deal Brexit due to the considerable damage it would cause for all involved but as long as it remains an option it will weigh on the currency.

Kiwi slips as retail sales slow

Oil pares Black Friday plunge

Brent and WTI prices are paring gains at the start of the week after another plunge on what is being dubbed “Black Friday” for oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting next week. It will be interesting to see how traders respond this week and whether the thinner than normal trade around the US Thanksgiving holiday exacerbated what would have otherwise been a more modest decline.

Oil (WTI and Brent) Daily Chart

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To be selling so heavily after such a long and substantial decline, just ahead of a meeting at which a significant production cut could be announced strikes me as a little odd. The market looks primed for a short squeeze at some point in the not-too distant future. Of course, this could be a case of traders expecting a smaller output cut, or none at all, as Saudi Arabia looks to scratch Trump’s back in return for his backing in the aftermath of the Khashoggi murder, although I remain unconvinced.

Daily Markets Broadcast 2018-11-26

Bitcoin losses reach more than 80% from peak last December

Bitcoin was heading south once again over the weekend as the wider cryptocurrency space continues to suffer in the aftermath of the bitcoin cash fork. Bitcoin had been relatively stable prior to this event but a 45% tumble in less than two weeks has been a flash back to this time last year when 10+% daily moves were the norm and suddenly everyone wanted a bit of the action.

Bitcoin (Bitstamp) Daily Chart

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

The recent soft patch – to put it mildly – has taken the losses since the peak last December to more than 80% and I don’t think we’re done yet. Prices are still up around 300% since the start of last year which still represents incredible gains, but more importantly plenty of room below.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.