Aussie dips and recovers as trade surplus narrows

Australia’s trade surplus narrows

A fall in Australia’s exports in July resulted in a narrowing of the country’s trade surplus. Data released this morning showed the surplus falling to A$1.55 billion from A$1.87 billion in June as exports fell 1.0% from a month earlier. Whilst the surplus narrowed, it was slightly higher than economists’ forecasts of a drop to A$1.4 billion.

AUD/USD slid marginally after the data but soon recovered a foothold above the 100-hour moving average at 0.7201. The pair is currently trading at 0.7206.

 

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

 

Brexit headlines to determine the pound’s path

Yesterday’s moves showed how the pound’s near-term direction is determined by Brexit headlines. News that both Germany and the UK were dropping some key Brexit demands, thereby paving a smoother path for creating some kind of Brexit deal before next year, lifted the pound dramatically. GBP/USD jumped from 1.2786 to 1.2983 before easing back to just above the 1.2900 level. Yesterday’s sharp turnaround resulted in an outside-range day and another bullish close today would suggest the rebound could extend a bit further. Resistance is at the 55-day moving average at 1.3030 with the pair currently trading at 1.2924.

 

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

 

Tariff on, tariff off?

Early this morning US President Donald Trump said that we should know if Canada will be in the trade deal with Mexico in the next two or three days, maybe even today. As the deadline for imposing tariffs on the next $200 billion worth of Chinese imports approaches (the public consultation exercise ends tomorrow), the US dollar has eased back from its three-week high awaiting any announcement on either the China or Canada situation. USD/CAD is at 1.3171, set for a second day of declines.

 

More jobs data to come

The run in to tomorrow’s August US nonfarm payroll release continues with the publication of the ADP employment change. While the employment index in the ISM PMI report jumped to a six month high earlier in the week, the ADP numbers are expected to show a slight decline to 190,000 from 219,000 in July. Challenger job cuts and the weekly jobless claims complete the prep work for tomorrow’s release.

Other items on the data deck include Swiss Q2 GDP numbers, factory orders for July from both Germany and the US together with the August ISM non-manufacturing PMI. FOMC member Williams also speaks again today.

 

The full MarketPulse data calendar can be seen at: https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

 

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Andrew Robinson

Andrew Robinson

Senior Market Analyst at MarketPulse
A seasoned professional with more than 30 years’ experience in foreign exchange, interest rates and commodities, Andrew Robinson is a senior market analyst with OANDA, responsible for providing timely and relevant market commentary and live market analysis throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Having previously worked in Europe, since moving to Singapore he worked with several leading institutions including Bloomberg, Saxo Capital Markets and Informa Global Markets, proving FX strategies based on a combination of technical and fundamental analysis as well as market flow information. Andrew began his career as an FX dealer with NatWest and the Royal Bank of Scotland in the UK.
Andrew Robinson

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