EUR/USD – Euro under pressure, investors eye US retail sales

EUR/USD has posted small losses in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1316, down 0.15% on the day. On the release front, there are no major eurozone events. In the U.S. today’s key indicators are retail sales reports. The markets are bracing for a downturn in the July data, with retail sales expected to dip to 0.1% and core retail sales forecast to drop to 0.3%.

The U.S dollar continues to make headway against the euro, as the pair is again below the 1.14 line. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at its lowest level since June 2017. The continuing chatter over trade war tensions between the U.S and its major trading partners has had a negative impact on the risk appetite and boosted the U.S dollar. Ironically, President Trump has continually complained about the strong dollar and his comments have weighed on the dollar, but only brief spells. Investors have let the booming US economy do the talking, rather than the ominous sounds of the President’s tweets.

Eurozone GDP in the second quarter managed to beat the estimate, but investors are not impressed. The economy posted a modest gain of 0.4% for a second straight quarter. The estimate stood at 0.3%. German ZEW Economic Sentiment gained ground in August but still remains in negative territory, with a reading of 13.7 points. Weak growth in the eurozone and trade tensions with the U.S have affected investor sentiment, and the euro has struggled as a result, trading at 14-month lows against a strong U.S dollar.

  Aussie drops on hints of potential China slowdown

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (August 15)

  • 5:32 German 30-year Bond Auction. Actual 0.94/1.6
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.1%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 20.1
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity. Estimate 2.4%
  • 8:30 US Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Estimate -0.1%
  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.2%
  • 8:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.3%
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 67
  • 10:30 US Cude Oil Inventories. Estimate -2.6M
  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 32.3B

Thursday (August 16)

  • 2:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.5%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 17.0
  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.31M
  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.27M
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 21.9
  • 14:00 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 215K
  • 16th-17th US Mortgage Delinquencies
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 30B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Wednesday, August 15, 2018

EUR/USD for August 15 at 7:40 DST

Open: 1.1409 High: 1.1430 Low: 1.1309 Close: 1.1316

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0951 1.1119 1.1312 1.1434 1.1553 1.1637

EUR/USD has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions

  • 1.1312 is a weak support line
  • 1.1434 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1312, 1.1119 and 1.0951
  • Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1637
  • Current range: 1.1312 to 1.1434

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.