US Futures Build on Jobs Report Gains

Near-Term Stability in Italy and Spain Aid Risk Appetite

A decent jobs report on Friday combined with an apparent easing of political risk in Europe is helping lift equity markets at the start of the week, with US futures around half a percentage point higher.

While the new governments in Spain and Italy should provide some political stability in the near-term, this is unlikely to last too long and in the case of the latter, it poses a significant threat to the euro due to the eurosceptic nature of the new coalition government. Still, in the near-term, the developments late last week were probably the least undesirable outcome from a markets perspective which is why we’re seeing a sense of relief.

Dollar Dips on Trade Worries

Strong Jobs Report Offsets Trade War Fears

The jobs report on Friday was yet another reminder of how well the US economy is doing and why the Federal Reserve is continuing to tighten monetary policy despite constantly being questioned about the need to do so when inflation is only accelerating at a moderate pace. Strong job gains combined with a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.8% and a slight uptick in wage growth was welcome at a time when people are generally fretting about the threat posed by an unnecessary trade war.

The angry responses from various politicians in response to Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium and the counter measures that will likely follow doesn’t fill anyone will optimism. This may well be a tactic to force countries back to the negotiating table that could in the longer run result in smaller deficits for the US and what it deems to be fairer trade but this is far from guaranteed and Trump is clearly taking a big risk, something he isn’t exactly averse to.

DAX Steady as Italy Forms New Government

Still, while the S&P 500 is just shy of 5% off its highs and the Dow more than 7%, investors aren’t panicking about a trade war. I think there’s still a long way to go until such an escalation happens and the base case for many is that it is avoided. Still, until this happens it remains a risk and will likely weigh on investors sentiment.

Dow (US30) Daily Chart

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This week is looking a little quieter from an economic data standpoint which will likely put more focus on the various political issues. The only economic release of note today is US factory orders, while we will also hear from the Bank of England’s Silvana Tenreyro later in the day as she speaks at the University of Surrey.

Economic Calendar

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.