Trump To Show Iran The Good Oil?

President Trump’s update on its Iran relations today has the oil market nervous, overshadowing this evening’s U.S. CPI. 

Brent and WTI limped quietly into the week’s end overnight with the price action with the price action neutral as the dust settles. WTI outperformed as the DOE Crude Inventories showed a higher than expected 2.7 million barrel drawdown and strong export figures. It was somewhat mollified though, as gasoline inventories revealed a higher than expected build as U.S. refining gets back online following the hurricanes.

Brent also rallied initially but was capped as the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the market was rebalancing well but that this was mostly fully priced into the markets for now. Further price increases would require stronger action from oil producers. This one hand gives, one hand takes away outlook took the wind out of Brent sails with it settling mid-range at 56.50.

The Asia session took an altogether brighter view with both contracts climbing steadily throughout the day. Traders digested the overnight inventory figures along with very strong Chinese data showing that it imported 9 million barrels per day over September, making it easily the largest importer of oil in the world.

It is President Trump’s speech its future relations with Iran and the nuclear deal that has probably caused most of the upward pressure in oil, however. The threat of renewed sanctions and a decrease in Iranian oil flowing to world markets supporting both contracts throughout the Asia session.

Brent has climbed to 57.15, up 1.05% for the day.  Resistance is at 57.40, a double top from Thursday and Friday. Beyond this level, the charts show clear air until 58.50 and then the formidable 59.00 regions. Support is at 56.40 followed by 56.00 and then 55.00.

Brent Daily

WTI has clambered higher by 1.20% to trade at 51.20 as Europe gets underway n earnest. It has resistance nearby at 51.25 and then a double top at 51.45. A break of this level clears the way for a retest of September high at 52.50. Support is at 50.55 followed by 50.00. A break of that level would suggest the rally has ended for now, and a move towards the 200-day moving average at 49.20 is more likely.

WTI Daily


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, from 2016 to August 2022
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley was OANDA’s Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV and Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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