March Fed Hike Odds Hit 50%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed its winning streak to the longest in 30 years, while Treasuries fell and the dollar advanced as the Trump administration began outlining its spending priorities in greater detail ahead of the president’s speech to Congress Tuesday.

The blue-chip stock index eked out a 12th straight gain to close at a record, as energy and industrial shares rose after Trump said he’d spend ‘big’ on infrastructure. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed from the lowest close of the year, while Bloomberg’s dollar index turned green as the Fed Bank of Dallas president reiterated his view that rates should rise “sooner rather than later.” The implied odds for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase next month rose to 50 percent.

The White House began sketching its spending plans in an outline budget Monday as Trump said he has no choice but to spend on infrastructure, while adding that tax details won’t become clear until after the costs of repealing the Affordable Care Act are known. The Fed decision on rates is due in two weeks, with odds for a hike rising from 34 percent just five days ago.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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