Is Carney’s Consumer Forecast Proving Correct?

The U.K. consumer finally appears to be cracking — potentially taking Britain’s economic strength with it.

Retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month in January, calling into question the key component of the economy’s recent momentum. The decline left both the three-month and annual rates of growth at the slowest in more than three years.

The figures may be the beginning of a predicted cooling in household spending as Britons find their purchasing power eroded by faster inflation. Its materialization confirms the warnings from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that consumers will falter this year, one of the “crucial” judgments he’s cited for keeping interest rates at a record low even as the economy expands and price growth accelerates.


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This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam
Craig Erlam

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