Is Carney’s Consumer Forecast Proving Correct?

The U.K. consumer finally appears to be cracking — potentially taking Britain’s economic strength with it.

Retail sales unexpectedly fell for a third month in January, calling into question the key component of the economy’s recent momentum. The decline left both the three-month and annual rates of growth at the slowest in more than three years.

The figures may be the beginning of a predicted cooling in household spending as Britons find their purchasing power eroded by faster inflation. Its materialization confirms the warnings from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney that consumers will falter this year, one of the “crucial” judgments he’s cited for keeping interest rates at a record low even as the economy expands and price growth accelerates.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam

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