Sonami Chairman Says Copper to Face Substantial Supply Deficit in 2020

“In the near term, mining companies are not investing in additional capacity and copper demand is growing at a pace of around 2 percent a year,” Sonami Chairman Diego Hernandez told the Copper 2016 industry conference in Kobe, Japan.

Supply growth will likely begin to fall from around 2019 and the market will face a substantial deficit from around 2021 as it coincides with a recovery in demand growth, driven by population growth and urbanization in China and other emerging countries, and less fossil fuel use amid climate change, Hernandez said.

Renewable energy systems such as solar and wind power on average require eight to 12 times more copper per kilowatt than traditional generation, he said.

To encourage new mining projects, miners need a long-term copper price outlook of about $5,700 to 6,600 a ton, Hernandez who is former chief executive at Antofagasta, told reporters later on the sideline of the conference.

“Long-term price expectations should be much higher from 2018, if we are optimistic, or from 2020 if we are pessimistic,” he said.

“Supply and demand will be tight, and then copper prices should go up,” he said, without giving specific levels.

As for the recent rally in copper prices, Hernandez said expectations for higher infrastructure spending in the United States following Donald Trump’s presidential election win was a major driver.

“Copper demand and supply are nearly balanced. But the prices went up only because of expectations,” he said, suggesting that the trend may not be sustainable.

Copper prices have surged more than 20 percent this month, led by stronger economic indicators out of the world’s biggest consumer China.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza