El-Erian Says UK Will be Forced to Deal with Stagflation if it Can’t Avoid Hard Brexit

Key U.K. financial assets experienced notable moves over the last 10 days. If Prime Minister Theresa May fails to heed these market signals, her government might have to contend with the premature return of one of the biggest challenges to economic policy making: stagflationary forces.

By the end of last week, the pound had fallen to below $1.22, mainly in reaction to speeches at the annual conference of the Conservative Party — and, in particular, the trifecta of messages indicating a “hard Brexit,” attacking “international elites” and criticizing the policies of the Bank of England. At the same time, the yield on the 10-year gilt continued its recent surge, reaching 1.15 percent on Oct. 14 and amplifying worries about a policy approach that still relies excessively on monetary policy.

This type of market reaction is consistent with eroding confidence in the ability of policy makers to contain unfavorable developments in both the trade and capital accounts of the country’s balance of payments. This is an understandable response because the political statements by government officials at the party’s annual conference signaled major disruptions to the U.K.’s trade regime, could slow the inflow of investment capital and could inadvertently encourage capital repatriation and flight. This could  occur even as a sizeable deficit in Britain’s current account requires significant financing in the form of net private capital inflows

It would be premature to take comfort from the one positive market indicator, the rise of the FTSE 100 stock market index to close to record levels in the last 10 days. When measured in almost any other currency, the index has been a major global laggard.

All this would not matter much were it not for the potential impact on the economy.

via Bloomberg

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza