Here Comes the Brexit-Era British Economy in Hard Numbers

Weaker demand, slower growth, faster inflation — that’s the U.K. economy that the Bank of England sees in its crystal ball after the nation voted for Brexit. Now the first hard numbers are on the way.

So far, surveys and estimates have mostly — though not comprehensively — shown that the June 23 decision to quit the European Union has prompted a downturn. The Office for National Statistics will this week publish figures giving more solid clues as to whether that’s the case.

If the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is right, weakness should start to appear pretty quickly. The London-based think tank estimates the economy shrank at the start of the third quarter, contracting about 0.2 percent in July alone. The BOE cut its economic forecasts by the most ever on Aug. 4, though economists say this week’s releases won’t show a dramatic deterioration just yet.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam