Here Comes the Brexit-Era British Economy in Hard Numbers

Weaker demand, slower growth, faster inflation — that’s the U.K. economy that the Bank of England sees in its crystal ball after the nation voted for Brexit. Now the first hard numbers are on the way.

So far, surveys and estimates have mostly — though not comprehensively — shown that the June 23 decision to quit the European Union has prompted a downturn. The Office for National Statistics will this week publish figures giving more solid clues as to whether that’s the case.

If the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is right, weakness should start to appear pretty quickly. The London-based think tank estimates the economy shrank at the start of the third quarter, contracting about 0.2 percent in July alone. The BOE cut its economic forecasts by the most ever on Aug. 4, though economists say this week’s releases won’t show a dramatic deterioration just yet.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.