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Pound Would Sink 9 Percent If Country Voted to Leave EU

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The British pound would sink 9 percent against the dollar in the immediate aftermath of Britons voting to leave the European Union on June 23, a Reuters poll of foreign exchange strategists showed on Thursday.

Conversely, if they decide to remain in the 28-member union then the pound would gain 4 percent on the greenback, the survey of more than 30 currency forecasters taken in the past week found.

When asked in April how sterling would fare, median forecasts suggested it would gain the same 4 percent soon after an ‘In’ vote but would fall 7 percent if Britain voted to leave. Since then the ‘Remain’ camp appears to have gained some traction, which has supported sterling.

Reuters

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
Craig Erlam

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