NIESR Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 3.0%

Global economic growth will slow this year to the lowest rate since the financial crisis, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

The think tank cut its 2015 forecast to 3.0% from the 3.2% it predicted in May.

It has cut growth forecasts for the US and many emerging market economies, although its forecast for the eurozone has only been cut slightly.

Its growth forecast for the UK economy was unchanged at 2.5%.

The full-year growth prediction for the UK remained unchanged despite the NIESR cutting its growth estimate for the three months to the end of September from 0.8% to 0.4%.

NIESR identifies the Greek economy as a key risk to global growth. Its forecast is based on the assumption that there will be “large-scale debt relief” for Greece, which is currently far from certain.

It says that the latest Greek crisis has revived doubts about whether the eurozone currency union can succeed without greater integration.

The NIESR also says that the slowdown in China may threaten its forecast, with official figures predicting growth of 7%, while some analysis suggests growth of 3% is more likely.

via BBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza