Indian Rupee Volatility Rises after FOMC Minutes

A gauge of expected swings in the rupee rose to a two-week high as speculation the Federal Reserve is moving toward higher interest rates buoyed the dollar.

Fed officials are weighing whether they should communicate more of their views about the probable pace of rate increases after they lift off zero next year, according to minutes of the U.S. central bank’s October meeting released yesterday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 peers, has risen 0.5 percent this week.

“There’s a bit of nervousness in the emerging-market space and the rupee isn’t an exception to that,” said Ankur Jhaveri, co-head of currency and rates at Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. in Mumbai. “The uncertainty on the Fed’s policy action has continued to have an impact.”

One-month implied volatility in the rupee, a measure of expected exchange-rate swings used to price options, climbed for a fourth day, rising 15 basis points, or 0.15 percentage point, to 6.26 percent in Mumbai, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s the highest since Nov. 7.

In the spot market, the rupee ended little changed at 61.9525 per dollar, prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg show. The currency, which fell in each of the past five days, dropped to 62.22 earlier today, the lowest level since Feb. 20, amid gains in the dollar and on concern a slide in the yen to a seven-year low will hurt demand for exports from Asia’s emerging economies.

via Bloomberg

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza