Poll Shows Nikkei Could Rise 11 Percent if Abenomics Works

June 26, 2014 Share Print 0

Japan’s Nikkei stock index will gain about 11 percent by year end as stronger-than-expected domestic consumption offsets the impact of a sales tax hike and a recovering U.S. economy lifts sentiment, a Reuters poll found.

The Nikkei .N225 has fallen around 6 percent so far this year, hit by political turmoil in Ukraine and Iraq as well as some disappointment that the Bank Of Japan is unlikely to ease monetary policy any time soon.

But in the past few weeks markets have risen after the United States Federal Reserve expressed confidence in the U.S. economy and committed to its dovish monetary policy, which spurred buying from foreign investors.

China’s upbeat manufacturing activity also attracted buying and the Nikkei has gained around 4 percent since the beginning of June.

According to the median forecast of 21 analysts polled by Reuters in the past week, the Nikkei will gain 11 percent on Wednesday’s close of 15,266 points to end 2014 at 17,000. That would mark a rise of around 4.4 percent for the full year.

A March poll had predicted it would reach 17,500 by year-end.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse

Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.