China GDP Release What to Expect

China releases its highly-anticipated economic growth data for the fourth quarter on Monday – numbers that are expected to show 2013 marked the weakest performance for the world’s second biggest economy in 14 years.
Many economists forecast China’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 7.6 percent in the final three months of last year, from 7.8 percent in the previous quarter.
That would put the full-year growth rate at 7.7 percent, above the government’s 7.5 percent official target but mark the weakest level since 1999.

“Ironically, whatever number the government comes out with, the market will probably view it negatively,” David Cui, head of China equity strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told CNBC Asia’s “Cash Flow” on Friday.

“Right now, you have to say the market is in quite a negative frame of mind. So if it [the GDP data] comes way above consensus, people will say the government has to tighten [monetary policy], look how fast credit has been expanding,” he added. “If it’s too low, people will say, wow things are going badly I better not get too involved [in stocks].”

via CNBC

via Stop: It’s China GDP time

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza