Reuters Poll Has Fed Starting Tapering in March

The Federal Reserve will begin trimming its monthly asset purchases in March but some economists are warming up to the idea that it will do so as early as this month or at the January policy meeting, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Another month of strong U.S. hiring and an unexpected drop in the jobless rate reported on Friday prompted several economists to bring forward their expectations for when the Fed will begin paring back its $85 billion of monthly bond buying.

Nearly half, 29 of 63 economists, think the taper will happen in either December or January, before Janet Yellen is expected to take over from Ben Bernanke as chair of the Fed. Nine say it will happen at the U.S. central bank’s Dec 17-18 meeting; 19 say in January, and one said either December or January.

In a poll taken just over two weeks ago, 16 of 62 economists were calling for a taper in January, and just three said December, with the rest saying March or later.

But the majority of economists polled, 33, still expect the Fed to start trimming its bond buying in March.

Out of 41 common contributors in both polls, 10 have now brought expectations forward. Six have pushed them ahead, while more than half, 25, have left their forecast unchanged.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza