Oil and Gold Consolidate Gains

Oil and Gold had relatively calm sessions overnight with both crude and gold quietly consolidating their recent gains ahead of Jackon Hole.

OIL

Oil prices rose by just over one percent overnight as the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Inventories showed a drop of 3.3 million barrels, continuing the trend of declines of  crude oil in storage in the U.S. Although the number was slightly less than predicted, crude also got a boost from continued supply disruptions in Libya as well as potential weather related disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.

The street appears to be in a wait and said mode now, firstly from Yellen’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole, and secondly for more substantial evidence of OPEC compliance and a tightening of supplies globally rather than just the United States. The market seems unwilling to pull the trigger and test higher ranges on either Brent or WTI until this happens, even as the short end of the Brent futures curve moves into backwardation.

Brent spot is trading flat at 52.65, just below its upper range boundary at 52.70. A break opens up a test of 53.50 as Brent’s price action and premium over WTI spot continues to be the more constructive of the two. Only a move below 51.20 would shake confidence at this stage.

WTI spot is also flat from its New York close at 48.20. The short term technical show a converging triangle with lower and upper boundaries at 47.65 (also the 100-day average) and 48.50. A break of either level opens an extension of the price action below 47.00 and above 49.00 respectively.

GOLD

The summer doldrums continued overnight as gold produced a sideways day ahead of the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. The trend line support, today at 1281.00, remained untested overnight as gold traded quietly higher to close near the top of its range at 1288.00.

Ms. Yellen’s speech will decide the near term fate of the U.S. dollar and thus gold as well so patience will be required until her keynote speech tomorrow.

In the meantime, however, gold’s price action continues to be constructive as its quietly goes about its work consolidating the gains of the last ten days. Resistance appears initially at 1296.00 followed by the Friday high at 1301.00.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Currency Analyst
Based in Singapore, Jeffrey has over 25 years experience in the financial markets, having traded currencies, options, precious metals and futures. Jeffrey started his career at Barclays Bank in New Zealand. However he has spent most of it in London and Asia.Jeffrey focuses on the Asia time zone across asset classes. A regular commentator on business news TV and Radio, he is originally from New Zealand and holds an MBA from Cass Business School, London.
Jeffrey Halley

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