US Data Eyed Ahead of June Fed Meeting

US equity markets are expected to open slightly lower after the long bank holiday weekend, with traders looking to the income, spending and inflation data from the US to spark things back to life.

US Inflation, Income and Spending Key Ahead of June Fed Meeting

With markets still heavily pricing in a rate hike at the next meeting in a couple of weeks, there is the potential for disappointment yet again today. The upward revision to first quarter growth may have settled people’s nerves a little but a weak inflation report today could raise questions ahead of the June meeting. We’ve already had some policy makers raising concerns about the lack of inflation and a weak number today may be just enough to convince them to hold off on raising rates for a little longer.

CAC Ticks Higher on Mixed French Numbers

The income and spending data will also be of interest, with consumer activity of course being so important for the US economy. Both income and spending are expected to have grown by 0.4% in April which is consistent with the retail sales data and comes following a very disappointing first quarter. Strong figures today would be consistent with the current Fed belief that the slowdown in the first quarter was transitory, as it proved to be over the last few years.

Draghi’s Monetary Support Comments and Greek Speculation Weigh on EUR in Early Trade

The euro has been under some pressure this morning, particularly against the yen which has strengthened across the board, with comments from ECB Mario Draghi and Greek loan repayment reports weighing on the currency in early trade. Draghi’s claim that the eurozone still needs an extraordinary amount of monetary support would suggest the central bank may not be as keen to reign in its stimulus program as has been speculated. That said, the scale of the sell-off combined with the rebound we’ve already seen, would suggest investors still expect further reductions in stimulus later this year.

Euro Geopolitical Fears Sap Risk Appetite

The rebound has also be aided by a Greek government spokesman denying reports over the weekend that the country is considering opting out of its loan repayment in deny unless lenders come to an agreement on debt relief next month. Debt relief continues to be a major sticking point for negotiations, with the IMF insistent that something must be done in order to make the county’s debt sustainable. Of course, this still remains a controversial issue, particularly in Germany where the public will head to the polls later this year. Should Angela Merkel come to an agreement on debt relief just ahead of the election, it could be damaging for her so it’ll be interesting to see how she gets around it.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.