Analysts Call for Peak Gasoline in 2021

Demand for gasoline in the United States, which accounts for a tenth of global oil consumption, is expected to peak next year as engines become more efficient, WoodMackenzie analysts said.

Global demand for gasoline, which accounts for more than a quarter of the world’s oil consumption, is set to peak as early as 2021 even in the face of relentless growth in the vehicle fleet, according to the Edinburgh-based consultancy.

A rise in the number of hybrid and electric cars such as the Nissan (7201.T) Leaf, Toyota (7203.T) Prius and Tesla (TSLA.O) as well as tighter fuel standards in Europe and the United States will contribute to a historic shift in consumption.



The United States saw spectacular growth in gasoline demand following the collapse in oil prices in 2014 and as its economy recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, reaching a record high of 9.326 million barrels per day last year.

“We expect gasoline engine efficiency to continue to improve through better deployment of batteries in hybrid vehicles,” WoodMac analyst Alan Gelder said.

An expected recovery in oil prices in coming years is also expected to curtail demand growth, he added.

At its peak, global gasoline demand is expected to reach 25.89 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, accounting for roughly a quarter of oil demand.

The decline in U.S. and European gasoline consumption will mask a steady expansion in demand in Asia, where most of the global increase in the vehicle fleet will take place.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza