March Fed Hike Odds Hit 50%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed its winning streak to the longest in 30 years, while Treasuries fell and the dollar advanced as the Trump administration began outlining its spending priorities in greater detail ahead of the president’s speech to Congress Tuesday.

The blue-chip stock index eked out a 12th straight gain to close at a record, as energy and industrial shares rose after Trump said he’d spend ‘big’ on infrastructure. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed from the lowest close of the year, while Bloomberg’s dollar index turned green as the Fed Bank of Dallas president reiterated his view that rates should rise “sooner rather than later.” The implied odds for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase next month rose to 50 percent.

The White House began sketching its spending plans in an outline budget Monday as Trump said he has no choice but to spend on infrastructure, while adding that tax details won’t become clear until after the costs of repealing the Affordable Care Act are known. The Fed decision on rates is due in two weeks, with odds for a hike rising from 34 percent just five days ago.

Bloomberg

DAX – Steady Ahead of Trump Congress Address

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MS

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Senior Currency Analyst at OANDA
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Sky News, Bloomberg, CNBC and BBC. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.