US NY Fed Survey Shows Inflation Expectations Remain Low in October

A measure of U.S. inflation expectations held mostly steady at low levels in October, with only some momentum higher, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey taken before Americans voted in this month’s presidential election.

The survey of consumer expectations, an increasingly influential gauge of prices for the U.S. central bank, found that inflation is expected to be identical one and three years into the future, according to the median.

It found that year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 2.6 percent last month. That is up from 2.5 percent in September, which was the survey’s lowest recorded level.

Three-year ahead expectations were flat at 2.6 percent, near a record low for the online survey that has shown a gradual decline in both price measures since it began in mid-2013.

Since Republican Donald Trump was elected U.S. president last week, market-based inflation expectations have risen sharply. The Fed is looking for evidence of inflation as it contemplates another interest rate hike, as soon as December.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza