$81 Billion Bill for UK in Hard Brexit Scenario

If the U.K. opts to cut all its trade ties with the European Union and go for a “hard” Brexit, it could cost the government £66 billion ($81.1 billion) a year, according to a leaked government paper reported by The Times newspaper.

U.K. government ministers have been warned that a “hard Brexit” – in which the U.K. leaves the EU’s lucrative single market and instead reverts to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules – could prompt the U.K.’s gross domestic product (GDP) to fall dramatically, the newspaper said.

“The Treasury estimates that U.K. GDP would be between 5.4 percent and 9.5 percent of GDP lower after 15 years if we left the EU with no successor arrangement, with a central estimate of 7.5 per cent,” the leaked document noted.


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Craig Erlam
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the BBC and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.