CANADA: Consumer Price Index, July 2016

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% in the 12 months to July, after increasing 1.5% in June.

Excluding gasoline, the CPI was up 1.9% year over year in July, matching the gain in June.

12-month change in the major components

Prices rose in six of the eight major components in the 12 months to July, with the shelter and food indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year gain in consumer prices. The transportation index, which includes gasoline, and the clothing and footwear index declined on a year-over-year basis in July.

The transportation index was down 0.2% in the 12 months to July, after rising 1.1% in June. Gasoline prices declined more year over year in July (-14.0%) than in June (-8.5%); on a monthly basis, gasoline prices fell 5.6% in July. On a year-over-year basis, the purchase of passenger vehicles index (+5.4%) and the city bus and subway transportation index (+2.1%) rose less in July than in June.

The clothing and footwear index decreased 0.4% year over year in July, after posting a 1.2% gain in June. This turnaround was partly attributable to a decline in the women’s clothing index in the 12 months to July (-0.4%), following a year-over-year increase in June (+2.2%). Compared with the same month a year earlier, shoppers also paid less for children’s clothing and men’s clothing in July.

Food prices were up 1.6% in the 12 months to July, after rising 1.3% in June. Prices for food purchased in stores increased 1.1% year over year in July, following a 0.8% gain the previous month. After registering a 0.3% year-over-year decline in June, meat prices were up 1.1% in the 12 months to July, contributing to the acceleration in the year-over-year rise in food prices. In addition, the fresh or frozen fish index posted its largest year-over-year increase since April 2014. By contrast, the fresh fruit and fresh vegetables indexes recorded smaller year-over-year gains in July than in the previous month.

The recreation, education and reading index increased 1.9% on a year-over-year basis in July, following a 1.3% gain in June. Consumers paid 5.0% more for video and audio subscription services in July compared with the same month a year earlier. The travel tours index rose 0.4% year over year in July, after declining 3.4% the previous month.

12-month change in the provinces

In seven provinces, consumer prices rose less on a year-over-year basis in July than in June. In Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and British Columbia, the CPI was up more on a year-over-year basis in July than in the previous month.

On July 1, 2016, the provincial component of the harmonized sales tax (HST) increased in both Newfoundland and Labrador and New Brunswick. In the 12 months to July, consumer prices rose 3.4% in Newfoundland and Labrador, following a 2.4% gain in June. In New Brunswick, consumer prices were up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, after rising 1.8% the previous month.

In Quebec, the CPI was up 0.2% year over year in July, after rising 0.6% in June. Gasoline prices declined 16.3% in the 12 months to July, a larger decrease than at the national level. On a year-over-year basis, the men’s clothing index was down 3.7% in July, following a 3.8% gain in June, and the women’s clothing index rose less year over year in July than in the previous month.

The CPI in Alberta rose 0.7% in the 12 months to July, its smallest year-over-year gain since May 2015. Households paid 12.5% less for electricity in July compared with the same month a year earlier. This year-over-year decline partly reflected a spike in the electricity index in Alberta in July 2015, when prices rose 30.2% on a monthly basis. On a year-over-year basis, the rent index was down 1.9% in the 12 months to July, its sixth consecutive year-over-year decline.

Seasonally adjusted monthly Consumer Price Index posts no change

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was unchanged in July, after increasing 0.2% in June.

In July, five of the eight major components increased on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis. The transportation index and clothing and footwear index declined, while the health and personal care index was unchanged.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the recreation, education and reading index (+0.4%) recorded the largest gain in July, while the transportation index (-0.9%), which includes gasoline, posted the largest decrease.

Bank of Canada’s core index

The Bank of Canada’s core index increased 2.1% in the 12 months to July, matching the rise in June.

The seasonally adjusted core index was up 0.1% on a monthly basis in July, following a 0.2% gain in June.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell
Dean Popplewell

Latest posts by Dean Popplewell (see all)