June NFP Results

Expectations:

  • Headline non-farm payroll (NFP) print – +165k
  • Unemployment rate +4.8%

Actual:

  • Headline +287k
  • Unemployment rate +4.9%
  • Revisions​ -6k fewer jobs were added in April and May
  • Average hourly earnings fall to +0.1% vs. +0.2% m/m – expected to climb as we approach full employment

U.S. employers ramped up hiring in June after a sluggish spring, signaling renewed momentum in the labor market that could quiet fears about a broader economic slowdown even as global market turbulence casts a shadow over the outlook.

Including June’s strong rebound, hiring in Q2 averaged +147k per month, down from +196k in Q1 and +229k in 2015.

The share of Americans with jobs or actively looking for work rose to +62.7% from +62.6% in May.

The average hourly earnings of private-sector employees climbed +2.6% in the year through June; it was last that high in December.

Next question – What’s the Fed going to do?

The wage data is a bit disappointing, but it continues to move in the right direction on a YoY basis. Expect some fixed income dealers to begin talking about putting a Fed rate hike back on the table for this year (look to September and December), but in reality it is still too early to tell. Fed-funds futures, currently show that investors see a +24% likelihood of a rate increase by the Fed’s December meeting, compared with +19% before this morning’s report.

The Fed is going to need to see another few months of solid data and continued calm in financial markets before moving forward. The impact of Brexit on the U.S. economy will begin to come into focus over the coming months.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell