Big Business Unconvinced on December Fed Hike

The financial heads at some of the world’s largest companies remain unconvinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve will make any substantial policy changes at its next meeting in December, according to a new survey released by CNBC.

Just 50 percent of 51 chief financial officers (CFOs) from Europe and Asia said they believed a rate hike was coming at the Fed’s policy meeting next month, with 27 percent predicting that it would only raise rates in late 2016. One respondent in the poll even predicted that the Fed would hold off from a rate rise during the next 12 months.

The survey – conducted between November 16 and 25 – includes CFOs from companies such as Unilever and Lenovo.

The results are in stark contrast with the view of market-watchers. Based on the CME Group’s (Chicago Mercantile Exchange & Chicago Board of Trade) 30-day Fed fund futures price – which has long been used to express the market’s view on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy – traders estimate that there is a 78 percent of a hike in December.

That number is up from 52 percent at the same point last month as Chair Janet Yellen and her team have started to sound a more hawkish tone as the policy meeting approaches.


Craig Erlam
Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years' experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, the BBC and The Telegraph, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.