Fed May Go Low

Investors can’t be faulted for trying to figure out when and how quickly the Federal Reserve is going to move on interest rates.  Some of the recent speculation, though, seems to have gotten at least a bit overdone.

Recent chatter has gone so far as to suggest the Fed may only hike by 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage points, in its first move after keeping its key rate near zero for the past nine years. In a CNBC.com report Monday, ANZ senior foreign exchange analyst Khoon Goh said the futures market actually has priced in such a move for September.

Forget what history says: In what has become the silly season for Fed speculation, everything seems to be on the table.  “Some … go so far as to predict that the Fed will raise short-term rates by as little as 10 (basis points). Should such a small move occur, however, it would be the first one in history,” Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, said in a note. “It’s never happened in the 179 rate moves since 1934.”