Greek Default Could Follow Past Emerging Market Crises

As uncertainty over Greece’s financial situation weighs on global markets, past crises in emerging markets (EM) paint a gloomy picture of how things might pan out for the country, a top Commerzbank analyst told CNBC Wednesday.

Simon Quijano-Evans, head of emerging-markets research at the German bank, said that those worried Greece could be about to default on its debts should take note of EM crises in Latvia in 2008, Turkey in 2001, Argentina in 1999 and Thailand in 1997.

Greece is actually in a worse position than those countries were when they faced a default, he argued.

“In spite of Greece having taken more painful adjustment measures than EM peers, public sector debt/GDP (gross domestic product) remains at an excruciating 175 percent, real GDP has failed to recover meaningfully, deposit withdrawals continue and unemployment pressure remains,” Quijano-Evans said in a note on the subject published last week.

Greece was not in a position to reduce its debt/ GDP, he added, and could be reaching the point where its only option was for it to leave the euro zone.

via CNBC

Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza