Gold Stops Retreat Awaits Geopolitical Climate

Gold held above a three-day low in New York as investors weighed tension over the downing of a passenger aircraft in Ukraine against the outlook for an improving U.S. economy.

The dollar was little changed near a one-month high against 10 major currencies after data yesterday that showed U.S. home sales climbed to an eight-month high and before a report tomorrow that may show slowing European manufacturing. Bullion, which dropped 0.6 percent yesterday, slid 28 percent last year on expectations for reduced U.S. stimulus.

Prices have rebounded 8.9 percent this year partly as tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East spurred haven demand. The European Union yesterday threatened to restrict Russia’s access to capital markets and sensitive energy and defense technologies unless President Vladimir Putin expedites a probe into the downing of the Malaysian passenger jet.

“Without the current geopolitical risks, gold would not be able to hold on to prices above $1,300,” UBS AG analysts wrote in a report today. “Such risks are holding potential shorts back. Gold reacted to U.S. economic data releases and subsequent movements in the foreign-exchange market, but follow-through was lacking. The overall muted tone remained in place.”

Gold for December delivery added 0.1 percent to $1,309.60 an ounce by 7:40 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices fell to $1,304.20 yesterday, the lowest since July 17. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.1 percent to $1,307.54 in London, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.

via Bloomberg

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza