US Economists Trim Economic Recovery Estimate

Although economists have trimmed their estimates for second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth, they don’t believe the economy will hit a recession this year or next.
The National Association for Business Economics’ Outlook survey of 50 economist, taken just days after the release of the June jobs report, also found economists believe the Federal Reserve will hike rates earlier than previously expected.

The panelists’ median forecast for annual second-quarter 2014 real GDP growth is 3 percent, down from the 3.5 percent median forecast when the full Outlook survey was last released in June.

But in a positive sign, economists said the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession in 2014 or 2015 is extremely low, with 60 percent of panelist saying the odds were less than 10 percent.

“Notwithstanding the difficult start to the year, opinion is widespread that the economy is on solid footing,” said Timothy Gill, Outlook survey chair.

The minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting did not indicate did not indicate that the central bank intends raise interest rates ahead of schedule. But with unemployment and inflation getting closer to the Fed’s target levels, analyst are predicting that rate hikes could come sooner rather than later.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza