Japan’s Inflation and Factory Output Fuel Optimism But Could Encounter Reversal

Japan’s recovery is holding steady ahead of a looming sales tax hike, economic indicators showed Friday, though weakness in wages and spending suggest it remains vulnerable to a reversal.

The consumer price index rose 1.3 percent in January and factory production also climbed.

Past experience suggests Japan will see a big plunge in demand after the 3 percentage point tax hike to 8 percent on April 1, said economist Masamichi Adachi of JP Morgan in Tokyo.

“It is a very difficult time to gauge the underlying strength of the economy,” he said.

As manufacturers and retailers raise prices to compensate for higher costs they are passing them on to consumers, who already appear to be tightening their belts to compensate.

Japanese awoke Friday to front-page reports of plans for hikes in the prices paid for vending machine soft drinks and plans for further increases in gas and electricity rates.

Contrary to earlier expectations, manufacturers are forecasting that factory output will fall in March, following a 4 percent increase in January to about the level it was at before a massive earthquake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan in March 2011, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported.

via Mainichi

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza