Week In FX Asia – Chinese Fortunes Tough to Pin Down

Should we be concerned about the rumors of a pending credit crunch in China? The beauty of a one-party system is its political flexibility. With authorities having the power and ability to strike a balance quickly between reforms to its financial sector and economic expansion, it should allow China to achieve its growth target of +7.6% this year. But the reality is that issues surrounding China’s shadow banking system are not going away any time soon — their growing domestic U.S. debt levels are making the global markets a tad nervous. Analysts are worried about investment dominating gross domestic product growth.

Whenever discussing China, it’s not too much of a surprise to see the nation’s data defy even the most bullish of market expectations. Earlier this week, Chinese imports were up +10% year-over-year against +4% expected, while exports rose +11% against a flat forecast. If anything, numbers like these lead to more questions. How accurate are they and is the market comfortable with them? Only a few should be able to answer that in the affirmative, especially with such a big miss. It seems rather convenient that when the market ever doubts the global economy, Chinese data comes up trumps. Despite this, China’s widened trade surplus and continued capital inflows should show that the yuan remains under pressure to appreciate. Analysts are expecting the RMB to finally break that psychological 6.0 handle later this year. But one must consider the interfering People’s Bank of China (PBoC) before jumping to conclusions.

The yuan closes out the week falling against the dollar after further PBoC intervention. Authorities set the dollar/yuan at 6.1070. Lately, the PBoC has been actively slowing its rising pace especially after the massive dollar sell-off that was initiated at the beginning of the year. It’s noteworthy to mention the yuan has fallen -0.2% since the start of 2014 after gaining +2.9% last year.


WEEK AHEAD

* JPY Gross Domestic Product
* GBP Consumer Price Index
* EUR German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment
* USD Consumer Price Index
* CAD Consumer Price Index

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell