XAU/USD – Gold Subdued, Markets Await US Retail Sales and CPI

Gold is showing little movement on Thursday. In the North American session, gold is trading at $1345.85. On the release front, it’s another quiet day. There was more good news from the US labor market, as Unemployment Claims dropped to 266 thousand, beating expectations. Friday will be busy, as the US releases key retail sales, CPI and consumer confidence reports.

US employment numbers continue to impress and beat market forecasts. On Thursday, it was the turn of Unemployment Claims, which dropped to 266 thousand, beating the forecast of 272 thousand. Earlier this week, the Labor Market Conditions Index and JOLTS Job Openings both beat expectations. Last week, Nonfarm Payrolls sparkled, surprising the markets and buoying the US dollar. The July indicator surprised the markets with a huge gain of 255 thousand, crushing the estimate of 180 thousand. This release follows the outstanding June reading of 280 thousand. There was more positive news as Average Hourly Earnings gained 0.3%, edging above the forecast of 0.2%. Prior to the payrolls release, a September hike was virtually off the table, especially in light of the soft US GDP report in late July. However, the stellar job numbers will force the Fed to give serious thought to a move in September. Employment and inflation releases in the next few weeks will be critical factors in determining if the Fed makes a move next month, or waits until December before revisiting the rate question.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (August 11)

  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 272K. Estimate 266K
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.2%. Actual 0.1%
  • 10:00 US Mortgage Delinquencies. Actual 4.66%
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 24B. Actual 29B
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are EDT

XAU/USD for Thursday, August 11, 2016

XAU/USD August 11 at 12:35 EDT

Open: 1347.56 High: 1353.38 Low: 1340.12 Close: 1345.58

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1279 1307 1331 1361 1388 1416
  • XAU/USD has shown limited movement for most of the Thursday session. The pair posted slight gains earlier in the North American session but then retracted
  • There is resistance at 1361
  • 1331 is providing support
  • Current range: 1331 to 1361

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1331, 1307 and 1279
  • Above: 1361, 1388, 1416 and 1447

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is unchanged in the Thursday session, consistent with the lack of significant movement from XAU/USD. Long positions have a majority (62%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving upwards. 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.