World Bank Forecasts TPP Will Add Less than 1% to Australian Economy

The federal government maintains the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement will deliver “enormous benefits”, despite World Bank analysis showing Australia’s economy will grow by less than 1% as a result of the deal.

Australia’s increased growth is projected to be worse than 11 of the other 12 countries that signed the deal last year, according to the report on the global implications of the deal. Only the US fares worse.

By 2030, Australia’s gross domestic product could increase by just 0.7% as a result of the historic trade agreement. By contrast, Vietnam’s GDP could rise by 10%, and Malaysia’s by 8%, the World Bank finds.

The analysis concedes that the impact for developed nations like Australia and the US will be “modest” because “existing barriers to their trade … are already low for the most traded commodities”.

“If ratified by all, the agreement could raise GDP in member countries by an average of 1.1% by 2030. It could also increase member countries’ trade by 11% by 2030, and represent a boost to regional trade growth,” the analysis said.

The trade minister, Andrew Robb, has defended the agreement, which has been described as one of the largest and most diverse trade deals in history.

“The historic Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement will deliver enormous benefits to Australia by enhancing our competitiveness, and promoting job creation, growth and higher living standards,” a spokeswoman for Robb told Guardian Australia.

“As well as slashing tariff barriers, it will drive Australia’s integration in the fast-growing Asia Pacific, and improve access to regional value chains by establishing one set of trading rules across 12 countries.

via The Guardian

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza