USD/CAD – Edges Lower As Ivey PMI, Unemployment Claims Improve

The Canadian dollar has showed slight improvement on Thursday and is trading in the mid-1.10 range in the North American session. In economic releases, Canadian Ivey PMI posted a huge jump in January. There was more good news south of the border as US Unemployment Claims rebounded and beat the estimate. Both US and Canadian Trade Balance missed the forecasts.

Unemployment Claims dropped to 331 thousand, down from 348 thousand in the previous release. This was good enough to beat the estimate of 337 thousand. On Friday we’ll get a look at Non-Farm Payrolls, which follows a very disappointing ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. This key release could dictate whether the Federal Reserve goes ahead with a third QE taper in February. The Federal Reserve has scaled down its bond-buying scheme with two tapers of $10 billion, reducing QE to $65 billion each month. The Fed would like to terminate the scheme by the end of 2014.

Canadian Ivey PMI climbed to 56.8 points in January, a dramatic jump from 46.3 points a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 51.3 points and was the index’s best showing since November. A reading over the 50-point level indicates expansion. The Canadian dollar has not been able to take advantage of the sharp release as it continues to trade at high levels. On Wednesday, Canadian Building Permits continues to slide, posting a decline of 4.1% in January. The markets had expected a strong gain of 2.3%. This decline follows another sharp drop of 6.7% a month earlier, indicating trouble in the critical construction industry.


USD/CAD for Thursday, February 6, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/CAD February 6 at 15:55 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1067 H: 1.1121 L: 1.1051


USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0852 1.0906 1.1000 1.1094 1.1177 1.1319


  • USD/CAD has edged lower in Thursday trading. The pair is showing some volatility, as it climbed above the 1.11 line in the European session but has retracted in North American trading.
  • The key level of 1.100 is providing support. This is followed by a support line at the key level of 1.0906, protecting the 1.09 line.
  • On the upside, 1.1094 has reverted to a resistance role. This is followed by resistance at 1.1177.
  • Current range: 1.1000 to 1.1094


Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1094, 1.1000, 1.0906, 1.0852 and 1.0783
  • Above: 1.1177, 1.1319, 1.1496 and 1.1610


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in Thursday trading. This is not consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, as the Canadian dollar  has posted slight gains. The ratio continues to be made up of a majority of short positions, indicating a trader bias towards the Canadian dollar continuing to improve.

USD/CAD has shown movement in both directions on Thursday, but has been unable to maintain any momentum. In the North American session, the Canadian dollar is showing improvement.


USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual 11.6%.
  • 13:30 Canadian Trade Balance. Estimate +0.7B. Actual -1.7B..
  • 13:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -35.8B. Actual -38.7B. 
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 337K. Actual 331K.
  • 13:30 US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity. Estimate 2.8%. Actual 3.2%.
  • 13:30 US Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Estimate -0.7%. Actual -1.7%.
  • 15:00 US FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks.
  • 15:00 Canadian Ivey PMI. Estimate 51.3 points. Actual 56.8 points
  • 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -270B. Actual -262B.


*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT


This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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