USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Improves As US Employment Data Falters

The Canadian dollar continues it upward rally and has posted modest gains in Tuesday trading. USD/CAD is trading in the mid-1.03 range early in the North American session. Today’s highlight out of the US, JOLTS Job Openings, posted a six-month low. Canada’s only release on Tuesday as Housing Starts, which fell short of the estimate.

US employment data continues to falter. JOLTS Jobs Openings dropped from 3.94M in July to 3.69M in August. This was way off the estimate of 3.96M, and was the weakest showing since March. North of the border, Canadian Housing Starts, a minor release, fell below the estimate for the first time since February. The indicator dropped from 193 thousand in July to 180 thousand in August, well off the estimate of 190 thousand. The Canadian dollar continues to improve, and has gained two cents since the beginning of September.

US releases ended last week on a disappointing note, as the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls came in at 169 thousand, missing the estimate of 178 thousand. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 7.4% to 7.3%, but this improvement is not all that significant, given the low participation rate in the labor force. The Fed continues to keep its cards away from prying market eyes and hasn’t let on when it might start to reduce QE. There’s a strong chance that we will see tapering begin before the end of the year, but this will require stronger employment numbers than what we are currently seeing.

Meanwhile, tensions over Syria continue. A US military strike is likely, but the diplomatic activity continues in an attempt to end the crisis without a US attack. The story is expected to unfold as early as this week, as Congress gears up for a vote on whether to approve military action against Syria. We can expect some volatility in the markets as the crisis continues.

USD/CAD for Tuesday, September 10, 2013

USD/CAD 1.0355 H: 1.0380 L: 1.0331

USD/CAD Technical

• USD/CAD continues to lose ground in Tuesday trading. The pair dropped to a low of 1.0331 late in the European session.
• The pair is receiving support at 1.0337. This weak line could continue to be tested if the pair’s downward movement continues. This is followed by stronger support at 1.0282.
• USD/CAD continues to face resistance at 1.0442. This is followed by a resistance line at 1.0502.
• Current range: 1.0337 to 1.0442

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.0337, 1.0282, 1.0224 and 1.0158
• Above 1.0442, 1.0502, 1.0573, 1.0652 and 1.0758

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to movement towards short positions. This is not reflected in the current movement of the pair, as the Canadian dollar continues to improve. The ratio is made up of a solid majority of short positions, indicating a strong trader bias towards the Canadian dollar continuing to posting gains against the US currency.

USD/CAD is trading in the mid-1.03 range, its lowest level since mid-August. The pair hasn’t shown much reaction to weak releases out of the US and Canada, so the pair could have an uneventful North American session.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 94.8 points. Actual 94.0 points.
• 12:13 Canadian Housing Starts. Estimate 190K. Actual 180K.
• 14:00 US JOLTS Jobs Openings. Estimate 3.96M. Actual 3.69M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.