USD/JPY – Japanese yen hugs 112, BOJ rate statement next

USD/JPY is showing little movement in the Monday session. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 111.97, down 0.08% on the day. In economic news, it’s a quiet start to the week. The U.S Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped sharply from 25.6 to 19.0 points. This missed the estimate of 23.2 and was the weakest reading in five months.

Is the US-China trade war about to get uglier? The world’s two largest economies have already exchanged tariffs, and President Trump has threatened to sharply up the ante and impose tariffs of some $200 billion on China. Trump may be bluffing, but his rhetoric could torpedo trade talks with China. The timing of any new tariffs remains uncertain, as well as the level of the tariffs – will they be 10% or a far more punitive 25%? Investors remain on alert, and the specter of another tariff announcement from the U.S and the likely retaliatory response from China could boost the dollar this week against the euro. If the U.S does go ahead with further tariffs, it could put a chill on more than the equity markets. According to a report from UBS, a tariff of 10% on Chinese products could slow U.S growth in the fourth quarter and result in the Federal Reserve skipping a December rate hike.

The monthly Bank of Japan rate meeting on Tuesday could be a non-event. Policymakers are expected to maintain the short-term interest rate target at -0.1 percent and a pledge to guide long-term rates near zero percent. With regard to long-term monetary policy, the menu is likely to consist of “more of the same”. With the government planning to introduce a sales tax in 2019, the BoJ may opt not to raise rates and put a further strain on the economy. This could mean that interest rates will not be raised before 2020.

Another 200 billion in tariffs looks more likely than not

No tariffs, now tariffs, what gives?

Markets flat on China tariff expectations

USD/JPY Fundamentals

Monday (September 17)

• 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 23.2. Actual 19.0

Tuesday (September 18)

• Tentative – Japanese Monetary Policy Statement
• Tentative – BoJ Policy Rate. Estimate -0.10%

Wednesday (September 19)

• Tentative – BoJ Press Conference

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/JPY for Monday, September 17, 2018

USD/JPY September 17 at 11:25 DST

Open: 112.06 High: 112.12 Low: 111.85 Close: 111.97

USD/JPY Technical

USD/JPY showed limited movement in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair edged lower but recovered. USD/JPY is steady in North American trade

• 111.22 is providing support
• 112.30 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 111.22, 110.21, 109.21 and 108.28
• Above: 112.30, 113.75 and 114.73
• Current range: 111.22 to 112.30

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