US open – Brexit, GBP, gold, oil

Barnier Taking Sterling For a Ride

Michel Barnier is taking sterling for a ride this morning, with the regular flow of commentary highlighting the sensitivity of traders to Brexit deal prospects.

Early in the day, sterling soared on reports that Barnier views a deal as possible this week, only for this optimism to be crushed by other reports that he doesn’t believe the latest proposals from Britain are enough. I can’t help but wonder if he’s just having some fun at our expense.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

OANDA fxTrade Advanced Charting Platform

With talk already appearing of emergency EU summits, I’m not optimistic that this week’s EU council meeting is going to end in smiles and handshakes. With Boris’ hands seemingly tied though, how the next days and weeks play out is difficult to predict but let’s face it, when have these things ever been straightforward?

Predictably, there wasn’t much interest in the UK data this morning. Unemployment in the UK ticked higher while earnings growth slipped slightly to, a still very healthy, 3.8%. Meanwhile, sterling traders shrugged and went back to monitoring their Brexit headline ticker in the hope that more unnamed sources had juicy Brussels gossip. Ultimately, unless the data changes dramatically, it’s borderline irrelevant compared to Brexit negotiations.

Sign up to our Brexit Special webinar on 15 October below

Gold vulnerable as risk appetite improves

Gold is higher for a second day but I don’t think bulls will be jumping for joy. Gains have been very modest and the yellow metal continues to look very vulnerable to further declines after $1,480 once again came under pressure late last week. Doubts over the US-China trade agreement have dragged a little on sentiment which has lifted gold markets.

Ultimately though, while traders weren’t impressed by the lack of consistency in the messaging from both sides, it does still look like something will be signed before the year is out that will de-escalate the trade war for the first time. The details will be key though.

Gold Daily Chart

Oil closely monitoring trade talks

Oil prices are coming off a little after being lifted by Friday’s trade announcement. The global growth outlook is the clear primary driver in oil markets at the moment, despite the occasional geopolitical distractions that cause temporarily spikes. That may be complacent, but if we’re heading for recessions in some major economies, that will have a significant impact on the demand outlook in a market that is already oversupplied. WTI has held around $50.50-51.50 whenever tested this summer and remains the key level here.

WTI Daily Chart

Economic Calendar

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at Visit to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary. His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News. Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.