UK Would Face Tough Choices After a Brexit Vote

Britain will need to make choices on trade, labour laws and the environment that could be unpopular with voters if it wants to offset the hit to its economy from any decision to leave the European Union, a think tank said on Wednesday.

Britain’s economic output would probably be between 0.5 and 1.5 percent smaller than it would otherwise be by 2030 if it decides to quit the bloc in a referendum in June, according to Open Europe, a pro-market research unit.

That kind of impact would not be huge and new trade deals would help to make up for some of the difference. But agreements with big emerging economies could face grassroots opposition similar to recent protests over cheap Chinese steel imports which have decimated Britain’s steel industry, Open Europe said.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.