UK Elections in Six Months Big Geopolitical Risk

The U.K. is facing its most uncertain political future for decades – some argue centuries.

With just over six months until the general election on May 7, predicting who will hold the balance of power is becoming increasingly difficult – and worrying – for investors. The election will affect more than just U.K. voters, it’ll also decide whether the country stays part of the the European Union (EU).

“This is the first time in a couple of centuries we have had so many possible outcomes,” James Bateman, head of portfolio management at Fidelity, told CNBC, as he warned of more volatility in the lead-up to election.

The latest poll, by YouGov for The Sun newspaper, suggests left-wing Labour are leading with a 34 percent share of the vote, while the ruling Conservative Party are at 31 percent. The more interesting news is further down the rankings, where anti-EU U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) are showing a 17 percent rating, outstripping the Liberal Democrats (LibDems), currently the junior coalition party in government, with 6 percent. The LibDems have also fallen behind the Green Party — which like UKIP has just one elected member of parliament — suggesting that the position as the third party in the country is in danger of wipeout.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza