U.K. Parliament is Hung, Drawn and Quartered

A disastrous night for the Conservatives as an electoral swing sees them lose their parliament majority with a hung House of Commons.

The headline says it all really, with GBP/USD falling 2.0 % in the Asia session with just about the worst outcome possible with Brexit negotiations to start next week. P.M. Theresa May is due to speak at 10 am London time this morning with speculation that she will resign becoming one of Britains shortest serving Prime Ministers.

One could say it is the Conservatives who have been hung drawn and quartered with Labour in a jubilant mood. Those readers who may be unfamiliar with the hung drawn and quartered term, it was a particularly gruesome way of being executed in the Middle Ages in Britain.

It is slightly surprising we are only lower by some 250 points on the day as yet again British electorate has surprised the Conservative incumbents within one year. The market may well be waiting to see if the Tories can form a minority government, although their potential partners, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and the Scottish National Party (SNP) would demand a very soft Brexit as their price. It will probably be untenable to the Tories. In short, it’s all a bit of a mess.


The connotations will play out in due course starting with the Prime Minister’s press conference at 10 am London. GBP/USD is flirting with support at 1.2700 into early European trading. The next support zone lies in the 1.2588/1.2619 area. It contains the 100-day moving average at 1.2619, a previous double top at 1.2600 and the 200-day moving average at 1.2588.

Resistance is at 1.2770 followed by 1.2960, which for the time being, will remain a distant memory.



The halls of power in Europe must be rubbing their hands with glee this morning. The ECB’s quantitative easing programme is increasingly showing it is working, dragging Eurozone growth and inflation of the floor. Now the Europeans will be able to turn off their game theory negotiating models as the British effectively yellow card themselves from the Brexit negotiations before they even start. The European’s biggest worry right now will be if anyone from the other side will actually show up to the first session and who will that be?

The EUR/GBP has rocketed from 8650 to 8830 over the day moving through a series of previous daily highs which now become technical support.

EUR/GBP has support at 8790 and 8770, the March and June highs. After this, we see 8650 which will most likely remain a distant memory for now.

The next resistance is at 8855, the post-Brexit high. The charts, of course, look constructive, but we could possibly pause up here for a while as we have come a long way in a short time. Although, like the Conservatives, I do have a famous last word feeling about that call.



The United Kingdom’s voters have answered Prime Minister Theresa’s Mayday but turning around and sailing away. Her tenure must now be called into question there is no doubt, as will the makeup of the next government and the start of Brexit negotiations. Britain may well find itself back at the polls much sooner rather than later. Whichever way you look at it the uncertainty could see GBP bre-maining under pressure for some time to come.


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Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

Senior Market Analyst, Asia Pacific, from 2016 to August 2022
With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading and NDFs through to currency options and futures – Jeffrey Halley was OANDA’s Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely and relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes. He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC and Barclays. A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV and Channel News Asia as well as in leading print publications such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He was born in New Zealand and holds an MBA from the Cass Business School.
Jeffrey Halley
Jeffrey Halley

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