Oil Rises After OPEC Forecasts Higher Demand in 2015

Brent crude prices rose above $58 a barrel on Monday after OPEC forecast demand for its oil would be greater than expected in 2015 and the number of U.S. oil rigs hit a three-year low.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast demand for the cartel’s oil will average 29.21 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015, up 430,000 bpd from its previous forecast.

In a monthly report issued on Monday, OPEC also slashed its forecast for the rate of growth in non-OPEC supply, citing a slowdown in the U.S. shale boom and lower capital investment by energy firms.

The number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States fell to 1,140 last week, the lowest since December 2011, as producers feel the pressure of low oil prices, which have tumbled more than 50 percent since June.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 for March was up 35 cents at $58.15 a barrel by 1305 GMT (08:00 a.m. EST) after rising as high as $59.06 earlier in the session. U.S. crude CLc1 was up 75 cents at $52.44 a barrel, having hit a session high of $53.40.

“OPEC was much too optimistic on non-OPEC supply,” Carsten Fritsch, senior oil and commodities analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.

“It is reasonable to cut supply growth outside OPEC, given the recent developments in the U.S. rig count,” he said.

Stronger-than-expected growth in U.S. jobs in January also helped support oil and further fueled a recent rally in prices.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza