Non-farm payrolls (NFP) and CAD Job numbers

Non-farm payroll (NFP):

The most important number to track on the jobs report this morning is not the top number, or the unemployment rate, it’s wages and it has disappointed again.

  • U.S Employers add +222k Jobs in June
  • Jun Unemployment Rate 4.4%; Consensus 4.3%
  • Jun Average Hourly Earnings +0.15%, or +$0.04 to $26.25; Over Year +2.5%
  • May Unemployment Unrevised at 4.3%
  • May Payrolls Revised to +152K; Apr Revised to +207K
  • Jun Labor-Force Participation Rate 62.8%
  • Private Sector Payrolls +187K and Government Payrolls +35K
  • Jun Average Workweek +0.1 Hour to 34.5 Hours
  • The revisions showed job growth was better in April and May than previously thought. The U.S economy has created an average of +194k jobs over the past three months.

    USD has pared some of its overnight gains (€1.1419, £1.2907, ¥113.76).

    Selling pressure in the bond market is stalling as the payrolls release shows once again that bond investors place more importance on the wage inflation reading than the jobs growth figure.

    The market is pricing in +62% chance on the Fed lifting rates one more time before the end of the year.

    The yield on the U.S 10-year Treasury note has fallen -3 bops to +2.365%

    Canada jobs report:

    Job Creation Keeps Chugging Along in Canada

  • Canada Adds 45,300 jobs in June,
  • Unemployment rate falls to +6.5%
  • Jun Avg. hourly wages +1.3% y/y
  • Jun Full-Time Jobs +8,100; Part-Time +37,100
  • Canada Jun Participation Rate At 65.9% Vs 65.8% In May
  • C$1.2903 +0.65%
  • Today’s numbers eliminate the last possible obstacle for the Bank of Canada should it choose to raise its policy rate next week (July 12) as widely expected.

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    Dean Popplewell

    Dean Popplewell

    Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
    Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
    Dean Popplewell