EUR/USD – Steady as German, French GDPs Improve

EUR/USD has looked listless all week, and this lack of activity continues on Friday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. After a quiet week on the release front, it’s an unusually busy Friday. In the Eurozone, French Preliminary GDP improved to 0.3%, while German Preliminary GDP bounced back with a gain of 0.1%. We’ll get a look at Eurozone CPI and GDP later in the day. Over in the US, there are three major events on the schedule – Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

German and French growth numbers were respectable in Q3. German GDP posted a small gain of 0.1%. Germany posted a decline in Q2, and a second straight decline would have meant that the Eurozone’s largest economy was in a recession. French GDP improved to 0.3%, its best performance since Q4 of 2013. The estimate stood at 0.1%. At the same time, Eurozone inflation indicators remain very weak. German CPI declined by 0.3%, while French CPI posted a flat reading of 0.0%.

US Unemployment Claims has looked solid in recent readings, but the key indicator jumped to 290 thousand, missing the estimate of 282 thousand. This marked a seven-week high for the key indicator. The news wasn’t any better from JOLTS Jobs Openings, which weakened to 4.74M, down from 4.84M a month earlier. The estimate stood at 4.81M. On Friday, we’ll get a look at US retail and consumer confidence numbers, so we could see some movement from EUR/USD.

EUR/USD for Friday, November 14, 2014

EUR/USD November 8:10 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2461 H: 1.2476 L: 1.2427

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2143 1.2286 1.2407 1.2518 1.2688 1.2806


  • EUR/USD lost during the Asian session but recovered late in the session. The pair is showing little movement in European trade.
  • On the downside, 1.2407 remains a weak support line. 1.2286 is next. This strong line has remained intact since August 2012.
  • 1.2518 is an immediate resistance line.
  • Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143, 1.2042 and 1.1875
  • Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806 and 1.2905


OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Friday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted small losses. The ratio is almost an even split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction to expect from EUR/USD.


EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 6:30 French Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.3%.
  • 7:00 German Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 7:45 French Preliminary Nonfarm Payrolls. Estimate +0.2%. Actual -0.2%.
  • 9:00 Italian Preliminary GDP. Estimate -0.1%.
  • 10:00 Eurozone Final CPI. Estimate 0.4%.
  • 10:00 Eurozone Flash GDP. Estimate 0.1%.
  • 10:00 Eurozone Final Core CPI. Estimate 0.7%.
  • 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -1.7%.
  • 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 87.3 points.
  • 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.
  • 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 15:00 US Mortgage Delinquencies.
  • 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 37B.
  • 21:00 US FOMC Member Stanley Fisher Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.