EUR/USD – Euro yawing on Easter Monday, but U.S oil sanctions could rattle markets

German banks are closed for the Easter Monday holiday and EUR/USD is almost unchanged. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1249, up 0.03% on the day. There are no German or eurozone events on the calendar. In the U.S., there is just one release. Existing home sales is expected to slow to 5.31 million in March, after a strong reading of 5.51 a month earlier. Housing data will remain in focus on Tuesday, with the release of the housing price index and new home sales.

The euro dropped sharply on Thursday, after disappointing manufacturing PMIs from Germany and the eurozone. The manufacturing sector continues to post declines, as the global trade war has reduced demand for German and eurozone exports, and taken a toll on the German auto industry. German manufacturing PMI has slowed for nine successive months, and the worrisome trend shows no signs of changing until the U.S and China hammer out a trade agreement. The services sector, which is more reflective of domestic demand, is in better shape, as German and eurozone PMIs continue to indicate expansion.

It’s a quiet start to the week for EUR/USD, but that could quickly change, as the Trump administration is expected to announce on Monday that it will terminate sanction waivers given to some importers of Iranian oil, as of May 1. This move is intended to further tighten sanctions against Iran, and has sent crude prices higher on Monday. If risk apprehension rises, investors could flock to the safe-haven U.S. dollar at the expense of the euro.

Big Earnings, Rate Decisions and US GDP once markets return from holiday

Iran sanctions waivers hit sentiment in Asia

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (April 22)

• 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.31M

Tuesday (April 23)

• 9:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.6%
• 10:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence. Estimate -7
• 10:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 647K

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, April 22, 2019

EUR/USD for April 22 at 5:45 DST

Open: 1.1245 High: 1.1249 Low: 1.1236 Close: 1.1249

EUR/USD Technical

EUR/USD posted small losses in the Asian session and has recovered in European trade

• 1.1212 is providing support
• 1.1300 is the next resistance line
• Current range: 1.1212 to 1.1300

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046
• Above: 1.1300, 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1622

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