EUR/USD – Euro slightly higher on light-data Monday

EUR/USD has edged higher in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1362, up 0.25% on the day. It’s a very quiet start to the week, with no eurozone or German events. There are no major indicators in the U.S., so traders can expect limited movement from the pair. On Tuesday, Germany releases GfK Consumer Climate and the U.S. posts CB Consumer Confidence. As well, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

German and eurozone indicators were sluggish last week, raising concerns that after a slowdown in the fourth quarter, Q1 will also be a soft quarter. Last week’s numbers were weak, but the euro still managed to post a winning week against the greenback. On Friday, Germany’s fourth-quarter GDP showed no change, after a contraction of 0.2% in the third quarter. The Ifo Business Climate survey slowed for a sixth successive month, indicating concern in the business sector about the country’s economic outlook. Manufacturing and inflation data also disappointed. The manufacturing PMI contracted for a second straight month, while German CPI declined in January for the first time in a year.

In the eurozone, Flash Manufacturing PMI fell for a seventh successive month and came in at 49.7 fo February, below the 50-line which separates contraction from expansion. It marked the first decline since June 2013. Final Core CPI, which was above 2.0% just a few months ago, fell to 1.4% in January. If German and eurozone data continues to point to a slowdown, investors could sour on the euro.

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EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (February 25)

  • 10:00 US Final Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.3%
  • 11:00 US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks

Tuesday (February 26)

  • 2:00 German GfK Consumer Climate. Estimate 10.8
  • 10:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 124.3
  • 10:00 Fed Chair Powell Testifies

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Monday, February 25, 2019

EUR/USD for February 25 at 6:15 EST

Open: 1.1334 High: 1.1374 Low: 1.1329 Close: 1.1362

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1120 1.1212 1.1300 1.1434 1.1553 1.1685

EUR/USD movement has been positive on Monday, with small gains in the Asian and European sessions

  • 1.1300 is providing support
  • 1.1434 is the next resistance line
  • Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1300, 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.1046
  • Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1685

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.
Kenny Fisher

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