As Traders Watch Oil, Markets Start to Hear Different Drummer

A move higher in oil prices could continue to support stocks Wednesday, as markets dance around growing expectations for a Fed rate hike.

Fed funds futures Tuesday were forecasting a nearly 40 percent chance of rate hike in June and 68 percent chance in July — a jump from Monday’s levels of around 30 percent and 60 percent. At the same time, bond yields moved higher and stocks soared. Oil closed higher with West Texas Intermediate rising above $49 per barrel in late trading — a level last seen in October.

Three Fed speakers could add to the drumbeat for higher rates Wednesday, which began in earnest last week when the Fed released minutes that showed Fed officials would like to hike as soon as June. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks at 9 a.m. EDT on the economy; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at 11:40 a.m. at the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference in North Dakota, and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan speaks in Houston at 1:30 p.m. EDT.


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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.