The RBNZ is seemingly done but UK inflation data shows the BoE has a lot to do

It’s been a tough start to the trading day, with UK inflation data sending worrying signals while the RBNZ seemed to declare job done in its inflation battle.

Bitterly disappointing inflation report from the UK

The headline UK inflation number may look like a massive step in the right direction in April but the reality is that there’s far more to be concerned about in the report than happy. On the one hand, inflation has slipped significantly from 10.1% to 8.7% but unfortunately, that’s where the good news starts and ends.

This is still much higher than what forecasters were predicting, a decline to 8.2%, while core inflation leaped higher unexpectedly to 6.8% from 6.2%. That’s a serious setback when you consider that sticky inflation is what the BoE is fighting, not the headline number. Today’s report can not be viewed as a step in the right direction, but rather a big step back.

The MPC will find it very hard to justify holding rates now in June and may have little option but to go further again unless we see a dramatic improvement at the core level over the coming months. The risk of inflation becoming embedded has recently increased greatly and that must make the MPC a little nervous. It will be very interesting now to hear what Governor Bailey has to say on the release later on today.

RBNZ brings a surprise end to its tightening cycle

‘Job done’ was the message coming from the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday, as the MPC hiked the cash rate by 25 basis points and effectively declared the end to the tightening cycle. For once, there was no unanimity in the vote, with two policymakers voting for a pause, but all are seemingly comfortable with that being the end of the road.

Governor Adrian Orr declared that “all of the committee were comfortable with the forward path that had interest rates holding around 5.5%” so they couldn’t be more explicit in their guidance. Barring another inflation shock, the RBNZ now expects to hold rates steady for a year at least before cutting once inflation returns sustainably to target.

It also expects the economy to be more resilient than before, eyeing only a minor recession in the process. This far more upbeat view didn’t do the currency any favours, tumbling more than 1.3% as traders were forced to pare back interest rate expectations and factor in a lower terminal rate. The question now is will other central banks be so abrupt with their pivot and will they join the RBNZ in doing so soon?

Is Bitcoin making a break lower?

Bitcoin remains in consolidation but dipped a little on Wednesday, taking the price back below $27,000 and toward the lower end of its recent range. The trend of recent weeks has been against it and may suggest there’s further pain to come. That said, it still pales to insignificance compared with the gains we’ve seen since the start of the year. The next key technical level below remains $25,000.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar:

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Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam

Former Senior Market Analyst, UK & EMEA at OANDA
Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.