EUR/USD steady as German Business Climate unchanged

The euro is drifting on Monday. EUR/USD is down 0.05%, trading at 1.0849 in the North American session at the time of writing. US markets are closed for Memorial Day, which will likely mean a quiet day for the US dollar.

In Europe, German Ifo Business Climate stagnated in May and was steady at 89.3. This unchanged from the downwardly revised 89.3 in April and short of the market estimate of 90.4. The German economy, the largest in the eurozone, has struggled although they have been signs of recovery. GDP grew by just 0.2% in the first quarter, after contracting in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The ECB meets on June 6th and its credibility is on the line if it doesn’t deliver a rate cut which would be the first since March 2016. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that there was a “strong likelihood” of a rate cut in June and stated that she was confident that inflation was under control. This sounded like a strong endorsement of a rate cut next week.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel also signaled that a rate cut was coming in June, dismissing concerns over wage growth, which rose from 4.5% to 4.7%. Nagel stressed that a June cut did not signal the start of a series of cuts, as ECB decisions will depend on incoming data.

The eurozone releases the May inflation report on Friday, which isn’t expected to change expectations of a June rate cut. CPI fell to 2.4% y/y in April and is expected to tick higher to 2.5% in May.

EUR/USD Technical

  • EUR/USD has weak support at 1.0845. Below, there is support at 1.0806
  • There is resistance at 1.0886 and 1.0925

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at Visit to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.