Australian dollar steadies, retail sales dip

  • Australia’s retail sales decelerate to 0.2%

The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Thursday after three straight daily losses in which AUD/USD lost over 1% and hit an 11-month low. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6367, up 0.23%.

Australia retail sales rise slightly

Australian consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, has been showing cracks. Consumers have been squeezed by high borrowing costs and elevated inflation. These difficulties were reflected in today’s weak retail sales report for August, which showed a gain of 0.2% m/m. This was down from 0.5% m/m in July and missed the consensus estimate of 0.3% m/m. The reading would have been even weaker if not for the FIFA Women’s World Cup, which was held in Australia and New Zealand and boosted sales of merchandise and eating establishments.

For the Reserve Bank of Australia, the soft retail sales report adds support for a fourth straight pause. The RBA meets again in October and a key question is whether interest rates have peaked at the current benchmark rate of 4.10%. The RBA’s new governor, Michele Bullock, has not made any splashy moves, instead opting to stick to the script of Philip Lowe, her predecessor. Bullock has said that upcoming rate decisions will be based on key data and has warned that rate hikes remain on the table.

Bullock’s hawkish stance is understandable, as inflation, which rose in August to 5.2%, remains way above the Bank’s 2% target. Bullock does not want to lose credibility by saying rates have peaked and then having to raise rates if inflation continues to move higher. The markets are viewing the uptick in inflation as a temporary blip and expect the overall downward trend to continue, and have priced in a rate cut for May 2024.

.

AUD/USD Technical

  • AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6380. The next support line is 0.6320
  • There is resistance at 0.6446 and 0.6506

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Market Analyst at OANDA
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, Kenny Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.